Enlargement Package 2025
EU Enlargement: So Near and Yet So Far

Marta Kos (right), EU Commissioner for Enlargement Policy, and Kaja Kallas, Vice President and High Representative for Foreign Affairs, presented the annual enlargement package on 4 November 2025.

Lukasz Kobus; © European Union, 2025; EC - Audiovisual Service

The solution to Europe’s geopolitical dilemma rolls easily off the tongue: the EU must reform, and the European East must be brought into the fold. There is no shortage of expert debate about the how — in Brussels and in the capitals, among parliamentarians and the much-maligned “Eurocrats,” as well as in universities, think tanks, and NGOs. They all present detailed roadmaps and proposals to advance reform; all stress that the enlargement process must not crumble in the grind of technical bureaucracy — yet must remain merit-based, that is, driven by reform and performance. In short, there is no lack of ideas.

On Tuesday, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos and Foreign Policy Representative Kaja Kallas presented the annual enlargement report. As expected, Albania, Montenegro, Moldova and Ukraine received much praise. This came as no surprise: back in the summer, at a discussion hosted by the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Brussels, the head of cabinet for the enlargement commissioner had already lauded progress, with particular praise for the Albanian chief negotiator.

To become a Union of 30 or more member states, the EU needs to reform its decision-making processes and financial structures. However, the long overdue policy review has been postponed again.

HSS Europa-Büro Brüssel; AI-Generated Content, 2025; Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung

Commission postpones Pre-Enlargement Policy Review yet again

However, an important document was missing from the presentation. The so-called Pre-Enlargement Policy Review was already overdue and was originally supposed to be published alongside the country reports in October. The study is meant to lay the groundwork for reforms to make decision-making processes possible in an even larger Union. In addition, it is intended to prepare the current 27 member states for changes in funding structures. And here lies the crux of the matter — who will pay how much into which pots in the future, and who will be allowed to empty them? Today’s net recipients, such as Poland, could soon be called upon to contribute themselves.

The policy review is therefore a central building block for making the accession of new members possible at all. That it has now been postponed again is a bad sign. Even if the review is eventually published by the end of November, the repeated delay signals a looming decoupling of EU reform and the enlargement process. As long as that persists, the EU cannot resolve its enlargement dilemma. Most likely, the EU will end up with an enlargement “light”, admitting maybe both Montenegro and Albania, but not with the “big bang” some geopolitical thinkers advocate for.

Member states focused inward, European momentum stalls

However, the problem lies not only in the will but also in the ability. Whereas the EU's integration progressed in times of crisis, today it risks being overwhelmed by a multitude of problems and challenges erupting in- and outside its borders.

The EU and its member states are, in fact, fully preoccupied with themselves: France is going through a governing crisis, in which a prime minister resigns in the evening only to resume his grueling duties the next day. Germany envisions an “autumn of reforms,” while the AfD is matching the chancellor’s party in the polls. While the elections in the Netherlands recently offered a pro-European glimmer of hope, a party calling for a “Czexit” is soon set to join the government in the Czech Republic.

At the same time, everyone is watching the U.S. president, who has made it clear that America will continue supplying weapons to Ukraine — but only for cash from now on. Europeans are already preparing to shoulder support for Ukraine on their own. It doesn’t help that Russian drones are exposing worrying gaps in their own defenses. Unsurprisingly, Europe's defense industry and military financing now dominate the Brussels agenda.

Without a doubt, the accession of new members to the EU is a policy debate that fails to capture the European public’s attention. The challenges within their own constituencies are simply too numerous for politicians to dwell on Moldova or North Macedonia. As a result, it is difficult for policymakers to put the issue on the agenda.

Ukraine's President Zelensky faced strong resistance from civil society this summer when he tried to curtail the independence of anti-corruption bodies. This also harmed the otherwise trusting relationship with European partners.

© Presidential Office of Ukraine, 2025

Despite praise and public solidarity, Ukraine’s path to EU membership remains uncertain

Nevertheless, the Commission considers the accession of new members by 2030 “realistic.” Montenegro aims to conclude negotiations next year, Albania by the end of 2027, and Moldova and Ukraine are targeting 2028.

But for Moldova and Ukraine, this timeline is at least questionable. First, the EU member states must agree to start negotiations this year. Hungary is currently blocking Ukraine’s accession — and with it Moldova’s as well, since the applications of the two neighbors of Russia are politically linked.

Other Eastern European countries, such as Poland, view a fast-tracked accession process for Ukraine critically as well, so do France and Germany. The sheer size of Ukraine is a challenge not only for reconstruction but also for the integration of its agricultural sector into the European market, where resistance is likely to grow.

Corruption and abuse of power are also back in the spotlight. Over the summer, the EU pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to restore the independence of two anti-corruption agencies investigating his close associates. Now, the Commission’s report urges Kyiv to “accelerate” rule-of-law reforms.

In fact, Ukraine performs worse than Moldova in numerical rankings. According to a study by the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum (EaP CSF), Ukraine’s record in democratization and good governance is closer to Armenia’s than to Moldova’s. Moldova has also aligned more closely with EU legislation, while Ukraine remains at a level comparable to Armenia’s — which, however, is not a candidate for accession.

Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos considers EU enlargement by 2030 possible, but chose critical words in an interview with the Financial Times: she said she did not want to go down as the Commissioner who let “Trojan horses” into the EU.

Lukasz Kobus; © European Union, 2025; EC - Audio Visual Service

Against "Trojan horses": EU tightens safeguards

An important detail in this year’s enlargement report has rarely been pointed out in media reports: future members may be admitted only “on probation.”

Indeed, the Commission is fond of citing that every previous enlargement round has only strengthened the Union. Yet this contrasts with its own attempt to incorporate so-called “safeguards” into future accession treaties. These are designed to compel candidate countries to maintain progress in the rule of law, democracy, and fundamental rights even after successful accession. This mistrust stems primarily from experiences with Poland and Hungary following the major enlargement round of 2004. However, countries like Romania and Bulgaria have also caught the attention of sceptics.

Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos put it more bluntly an interview with the Financial Times: “I don’t want to go down as the commissioner bringing in the Trojan horses who will be then active in five, 10 or 15 years."