Analysis
SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) as a key to European defence capability and Fuel supply sovereignty
CR: iStock/Photofex-AT
23rd Nov 2025 marks the 1,366th day of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine from 24th February 2022. Currently, Europe is a navigating complex geopolitical and security challenge. In case of a conflict, to defend any aggression, a continuous and reliable fuel supply is crucial for maintaining operational readiness of NATO, especially on the Eastern flank. As per NATO’s military doctrine, air superiority is of high importance. It is estimated that in case of a full-scale conflict the Air forces would account for 85% of total fuel consumption, Land forces would account for 10% and the Naval forces for 5% [1].
As per the EU Eurostat report, in 2020 the EU’s import dependency for the entire range of crude oil and petroleum products was 96.8%. In 2023, this fossil fuel import dependency reduced to 94.8% [2]. In 2024, the largest EU imports of Petroleum oil were from United States (16.1%) (% share of trade by value), Norway (13.5%), Kazakhstan (11.5%), Libya (7.4%), Saudi Arabia (7.0%), Nigeria (6.1%) and Iraq (5.7%). The United States provided almost half of the imported liquefied natural gas (45.3%), ahead of Russia (17.5%) and Algeria (10.7%). A major part of the natural gas in gaseous state came from Norway (45.6%), Algeria followed with 19.3%, ahead of Russia with 16.6% [3]. This reliance on external suppliers outside the EU, including a residual dependence on Russian gas, continues to pose strategic risks. The rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape has showed Europe’s vulnerability in terms of energy, rare earth elements (REEs) essential for defence systems, batteries, renewable energy, semiconductors and Critical raw materials (CRMs) supply chain such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, magnesium, tungsten, and niobium. In the field of defence and security, this dependency on fuel is particularly critical, without a reliable fuel supply, air forces, land based armoured columns, artillery, air defence systems, and other defence logistics cannot sustain operations.
How SAF is produced
https://www.dhl.com/discover/en-hk/logistics-advice/sustainability-and-green-logistics/sustainable-aviation-fuel
To address this challenge, SAF can be a key enabler to European defence capability and ensuring the fuel supply sovereignty. SAF is a liquid fuel currently used in aviation which reduces CO2 emissions up to 80% as compared with conventional fossil-based jet fuel. It can be produced from a number of renewable feedstock sources, including agricultural waste, used cooking oil and fats, green and municipal waste and non-food crops. It can also be produced synthetically via a process that captures carbon directly from the air. It is ‘sustainable’ because the raw feedstock does not directly compete with food crops, water supplies or is responsible for forest degradation in the region where it is produced. On contrary, fossil fuels add to the overall level of CO2 by emitting carbon that had been previously locked away, SAF recycles the CO2 which has been absorbed by the biomass used in the feedstock during its lifecycle. The process of SAF supply process from production to use in aircraft is illustrated in fig. 1.
Nine biofuel production pathways are certified to produce SAF, which perform at operationally equivalent levels to conventional fossil-based Jet A1 jet fuel [4]. The HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) based SAF pathway is currently the most matured pathway. The HEFA process is a commercially deployed technology that converts vegetable oils and animal fats into hydrocarbons suitable for use in diesel and jet fuels [5].
By design, these SAFs are drop-in solutions, which can be directly blended into existing fuel infrastructure at airports, directly used in commercial and defence aircraft like regular jet fuel. It is fully compatible with modern aircrafts; no engine modifications are required. On 1st January 2023, the NATO CEPS (Central Europe Pipeline System) opened for the transport of SAF to Brussels Airport in a smooth, safe and CO2-free manner [6]. The Norwegian Armed Forces (a NATO member state) has committed to blend 15% biofuel for over 1 million business trips until 2028 [7]. SAF meets international safety and quality standards (ASTM D7566) and can be blended with conventional jet fuel or used on its own while still meeting the same specifications as normal Jet A‑1 fuel. Chemically, SAF is the same as fossil jet fuel and works in aircraft without any operational issues.
In 2024, SAF production volumes reached 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion liters), double the 0.5 million tonnes (600 million liters) produced in 2023. SAF accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel. This is significantly below previous estimates that projected SAF production in 2024 at 1.5 million tonnes (1.9 billion liters). Despite its limited market share, the average global cost of SAF is forecast to be 4.2 times higher than conventional jet fuel in 2025, up from 3.1 times in 2024 due to limited feedstock availability, smaller production volumes, and the need for advanced processing technologies [8] [9]. Also, key SAF production facilities have pushed back their production ramp up to the first half of 2025 as they face weak investment and policy signals [10]. Currently, SAF is widely accepted in civil aviation as the primary decarbonisation strategy, however; its production supply remains a major constraint.
The EU RefuelEU aviation directive (2023/2405) is a key legislative instrument introduced by the European Union to support the decarbonization of the aviation sector as part of the broader Fit for 55 climate packages. Adopted in 2023, the regulation mandates a progressive increase in the use of SAF for civil aviation at the EU airports, with minimum SAF blending targets that gradually increase from 2% in 2025 to 70% in 2050 [11]. Within this trajectory, a sub-target is also set for synthetic aviation fuels (eSAF), which are produced using renewable electricity and captured carbon. The SAF shall be blended as per the regulation with conventional fossil-based Jet A1 fuel. With the entry into force of RefuelEU in January 2025, a binding framework for the use of SAF in Civil aviation is established. The EU RefuelEU directive may first appear to be primarily a Sustainable and decarbonisation measure for civil aviation, but it also carries significant strategic opportunities for European defence capability.
There is a scope for the EU to incorporate SAF in European defence capability because it shall ensure:
Supply sovereignty: Using renewable raw materials like agricultural residues, biomass, municipal waste, and used cooking oils, Neste Oyj, a global leader in SAF production, produces SAF locally in Finland, as well as in France (TotalEnergies) and Spain (Repsol). Europe's reliance on volatile global fossil fuel markets and geopolitically unstable supply chains can be lessened by this localised production. Additionally, expanding SAF refineries throughout Europe keeps financial capital in the EU's energy system rather than sending it to outside vendors, promotes industrial resilience, and generates high-value jobs in rural areas. Building a strong European SAF value chain ensures that Europe's defence and civil aviation sectors remain operationally secure even in the face of supply disruptions or geopolitical challenges, strengthening both energy autonomy and strategic deterrence in the context of global energy competition.
Resilience in crises: Local SAF production in the EU and supply capabilities leveraging existing NATO CPES (Central Europe Pipeline System) which connects France, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Germany, NEPS (North European Pipeline System) that connects Denmark and Germany complemented by seven national systems: in Iceland (ICPS), Norway (NOPS), Portugal (POPS), Northern Italy (NIPS), Greece (GRPS) and two in Turkey (TUPS) and furthermore, the proposed EEPS (East European Pipeline System) shall enhance the fuel delivery capability in Europe and especially to the Eastern flank [1]. SAF can be delivered across Europe via these NATO pipelines, ensuring and strengthening defence operational readiness, even in case of road and rail-based supply chain disruptions or geopolitical blockades.
Technological leadership: EU is currently at the forefront of Sustainability, one example is RefuelEU SAF mandate for Civil aviation in the EU. However, promoting SAF production capabilities further shall ensure sufficient supply thus lowering the cost. SAF produced locally in Europe as per ASTM D7566 standard shall also enable interoperability between the NATO member states. The reliable SAF supply, lower cost and enhanced interoperability shall lead into its easy adoption by defence stakeholders and provide the EU with a technological and innovation edge. Furthermore, expanding research and development in advanced SAF pathways, such as power-to-liquid and alcohol-to-jet, can reinforce Europe’s industrial leadership in clean aviation technologies. Industry, academia, and defence institutions working together will speed up technology transfer and certification procedures. In addition to increasing competitiveness, this integrated innovation ecosystem establishes the EU as a global leader in sustainable aviation and defence fuels.
Sustainability as a security factor: Public opinions of defence operations are increasingly being impacted by the carbon footprint of defence aviation. NATO's defence activities alone produced about 233 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2023, which is equivalent to the yearly emissions of several medium-sized European nations [12]. A workable way to lessen this environmental effect and show that European defence is dedicated to striking a balance between operational readiness and sustainability goals is by incorporating SAF into defence operations.
The significance of visible climate action is further highlighted by public opinion. Only 38% of respondents are willing to pay more to offset aviation emissions, despite 58% of respondents believing that air travel is more harmful to the environment than other modes, according to a Royal Aeronautical Society survey [13]. By integrating SAF, defence aviation can actively reduce its environmental impact without adding to the costs to the public. This will boost public confidence, obtain social licenses, and strengthen Europe’s defence readiness in a European context that is concerned about sustainability.
Outlook
More than just a climate milestone, the EU's mandatory SAF blending quotas for civil aviation- which is 2% in 2025 and shall reach at least 70% by 2050- signify a fundamental shift in Europe's energy and security framework. This trajectory presents Germany and the EU with a chance to integrate sustainable energy as a fundamental component of strategic autonomy and match energy policy with defence planning.
SAF is not only about reducing emissions; it is about ensuring that Europe can fly and defend without relying on external powers for its energy needs. Today, much of Europe’s jet fuel is imported, exposing the continent to geopolitical risks and price shocks. By producing SAF domestically- from European feedstocks such as agricultural residues, municipal waste, or renewable electricity- the EU strengthens its capacity to operate independently in times of crisis. Every new SAF refinery built within Europe is not just a climate investment but a safeguard of sovereignty: it keeps energy supply, innovation, and jobs within Europe’s borders.
The integration of production, logistics, and certification ecosystems can be facilitated by implementing SAF in conjunction with civil and defence aviation. Dual-use value chains that improve industrial competitiveness and operational resilience may result from this. For instance, NATO's growing pipeline networks enable airports and defence installations to share fuel infrastructure, guaranteeing that both commercial and defence aircraft can use the same domestically produced, sustainable fuel. This close linkage between civil and defence energy systems embodies the kind of “joined up” European thinking that enhances collective security while advancing sustainability goals.
Ultimately, the shift toward SAF is not merely a decarbonisation effort- it is a sovereignty project. The EU and its allies can strengthen defence readiness, lessen strategic dependencies, and show their citizens that sustainability and security are intertwined by securing domestic, renewable fuel production and distribution throughout Europe. In a time of great-power competition and energy uncertainty, Europe's ability to power its defence and civil aircraft- with domestic, climate-neutral fuel will stand as a testament to its tenacity, independence, and unity.
About the Author:
Ayush Sharma is an MSc candidate at the Technical University of Munich (TUM), specialising in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), climate policy, and geopolitics. He has five years of experience in the aerospace and defence industry, having worked with American, Indian, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and European public-sector and corporate stakeholders.
References:
[1] Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) (30 July 2025). Fuelling defence: expanding NATO’s pipeline system to the eastern flank.
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2025-07-30/fuelling-defence-expanding-natos-pipeline-system-to-eastern
[2] Eurostat (4 May 2025). Oil and petroleum products – a statistical overview.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/43212.pdf
[3] Eurostat (12 March 2025). Imports of energy products to the EU down in 2024
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20250321-1
[4] U.S. Department of Energy. Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/sustainable-aviation-fuel
[5] Pearlson, M., Wollersheim, C., & Hileman, J. I. (2013). A techno-economic review of hydroprocessed renewable esters and fatty acids for jet fuel production. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, 7(1), 89–96. https://doi.org/10.1002/bbb.1378
[6] Brussels Airlines (1 January 2023). Brussels Airlines and Brussels Airport kick off the new year with first delivery of Sustainable Aviation Fuel via NATO pipeline.
https://press.brusselsairlines.com/brussels-airlines-and-brussels-airport-kick-off-the-new-year-with-first-delivery-of-sustainable-aviation-fuel-via-nato-pipeline
[7] Renewable Energy Magazine (17 October 2024). Norwegian Armed Forces create aviation first with biofuels.
https://www.renewableenergymagazine.com/biofuels/norwegian-armed-forces-creates-aviation-first-with-20241017
[8] Air bp (April 2022). Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) – specifications and composition.
https://www.bp.com/en/global/air-bp/news-and-views/views/saf_specs_and_comparison.html
[9] S&P Global Commodity Insights (2 June 2025). Airlines see relief with $86 jet fuel, SAF costs hinder sustainability: IATA chief
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/060225-airlines-see-relief-with-86-jet-fuel-saf-costs-hinder-sustainability-iata-chief
[10] International Air Transport Association (IATA) (10 December 2024). Disappointingly slow growth in SAF production.
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2024-releases/2024-12-10-03
[11] European Union (2023). Regulation (EU) 2023/2405 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 October 2023 on ensuring a level playing field for sustainable air transport (ReFuelEU Aviation). Official Journal of the European Union.
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32023R2405
[12] Transnational Institute (TNI) (November 2023). Climate in the Crosshairs: How NATO’s 2 % target fuels climate change.
https://www.tni.org/en/publication/climate-in-the-crosshairs
[13] GreenAir News (15 January 2024). Public survey shows perception gap on aviation’s environmental impact.
https://www.greenairnews.com/?p=7118
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