Early Elections in the Netherlands
Shift of Power Towards the Political Centre

10/31/2025

On 29 October 2025, the Netherlands held early parliamentary elections after Geert Wilders (PVV) withdrew his ministers in June over a dispute about stricter asylum policies, thereby bringing down the government. Around 13.4 million eligible voters were called upon to elect the 150 future members of the House of Representatives. Voter turnout stood at about 78.4 per cent.

Election winner Rob Jetten, D66 leader and potential new Prime Minister of the Netherlands

Martijn Beekman / D66; Wikimedia Commons

Surprising Election Result – D66 Emerge as the Winners

Contrary to forecasts, which had consistently shown Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) in the lead and predicted a neck-and-neck race between the GreenLeft–Labour Alliance (GL-PvdA) and the Christian Democrats (CDA) for second place, the formerly left-liberal D66, led by its new chairman Rob Jetten, achieved a narrow victory over the PVV with a gain of 17 seats. Both parties now hold 26 seats in Parliament.

D66 (the “D” stands for “Democrats”, while “66” refers to its founding year, 1966) benefited from a clear ideological shift towards the political centre, a strong media presence, and a professionally run, optimism-driven campaign. Jetten, 38 years old and a former Minister for Energy and Climate (Cabinet Rutte IV), presented himself as a modern, unifying politician and struck an emotional chord with voters – for example, by invoking national symbols such as the Dutch flag, which he said he would not “leave to the right-wing populists”. Unlike Wilders, Jetten pursues an explicitly pro-European agenda, aiming for the Netherlands to re-engage constructively in the evolution of the European Union and take a leading role.

Main Campaign Topics

Few issues concerned the Dutch as much as the housing shortage, especially in urban centres: around 400,000 homes are lacking, representing roughly five per cent of the total housing stock. Healthcare and immigration policy were also key topics in the campaign. The asylum issue, in particular, divided the country and led to violent protests in The Hague in September 2025, which, however, did not translate into additional votes for the PVV.

Winners and Losers:

New distribution of seats in the Dutch Parliament

HSS Europa-Büro Brüssel

A Reprimand for Former Governing Parties PVV, VVD, BBB and NSC

The lack of willingness to compromise and the professional inexperience of many ministers in the previous governing coalition did not go unnoticed by voters and likely played a major role in the loss of public trust. Several parties – including the CDA, GL-PvdA and VVD – have already ruled out any cooperation with Wilders’ PVV.

The PVV loses eleven seats, while the moderately right-wing party JA21 gains seven, and the Eurosceptic and Russia-friendly Forum voor Democratie (FVD) increases its share by four seats. The far-right bloc thus remains strong, together securing around 27 per cent of the vote and 42 parliamentary seats.

The liberal-conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), led by Dilan Yesilgöz, limits its losses to two seats and remains the third-largest political force in the country. The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) reduces its seats from seven to four. The centrist party New Social Contract (NSC), founded in 2023, loses all 20 of its seats following the withdrawal of its founder Pieter Omtzigt (formerly CDA) from active politics and is therefore no longer represented in Parliament.

Losses for GroenLinks-PvdA and SP

Particularly surprising are the losses of the GreenLeft–Labour alliance (GL-PvdA), which fell short of expectations with a decline of five seats. Party leader Frans Timmermans, who had been seen as a potential prime minister, resigned on election night. The decline of both this alliance and the left-populist Socialist Party (SP) points to waning interest in traditional left-wing and green issues among an electorate drifting to the right. Nevertheless, the GreenLeft-Labour alliance remains a potential coalition partner.

The CDA Comeback

The Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) has experienced a remarkable renaissance under its new leader, Henri Bontenbal, gaining 13 seats and becoming the fifth-largest party. With a focus on issues such as order, responsibility, and a fair economy, Bontenbal succeeded in winning back former voters and restoring confidence. The party is once again seen as a stabilising force within a fragmented party system and will be indispensable for forming a new, stable government coalition.

Henri Bontenbal, the rising star of the CDA

Leonard Walpot; BY 4.0; Wikimedia Commons

Coalition Formation and Outlook

With Rob Jetten (D66) and Henri Bontenbal (CDA), a younger, pragmatic generation is shaping the political landscape. Despite the clear message from voters, forming a new government is likely to prove difficult. Given the fragmentation of the Dutch party system, a coalition of at least four parties will be required to reach the necessary majority of 76 seats.

The most likely outcome is a Centrist Coalition consisting of D66, VVD, CDA and GL-PvdA, with a combined 86 of 150 seats. However, these parties must first identify sufficient common ground, as the VVD has so far ruled out cooperation with the PvdA. The resignation of Frans Timmermans could, however, facilitate this process.

Alternatively, a Centre-Right Alliance of D66, VVD, CDA and JA21 is under discussion. With the participation or tolerance of one or more smaller, experienced parties such as the Christian Union (CU, steady at 3 seats) or the BBB (4 seats), this coalition could also achieve a majority – though it would likely require concessions from JA21 on climate policy.

The 2025 election result is widely seen as a turning point in the Dutch party system: after years of political polarisation, there are signs of a return to the political centre, moderation, and a culture of consensus. A large share of voters clearly longs for stability once again.

Parliamentary Elections in the Netherlands

Dutch voting behaviour is known for its volatility, its willingness to experiment, and its strong emotional character. In order to achieve the highest possible voter turnout, the Netherlands employs creative measures: voting takes place on a weekday, polling stations are open from the early morning until 9 p.m., and voting locations can even be found in public places such as railway stations.

Forming stable governments, however, remains one of the greatest challenges within the Dutch system. The lengthy coalition negotiations of the past – most recently lasting more than 200 days – highlight the structural weaknesses of an increasingly fragmented party landscape. Three parliamentary elections in just five years underscore how essential political continuity and institutional stability will be in addressing major global and domestic challenges in the future.

The low threshold for entering Parliament encourages the emergence of numerous small and single-issue parties. Around 0.67 per cent of the vote is sufficient to gain one seat. In the election of 29 October 2025, 27 parties stood for election, 15 of which succeeded in entering the House of Representatives. This diversity not only complicates the formation of stable coalitions but also affects the quality of parliamentary work itself: smaller factions often lack both the necessary expertise and the thematic breadth required for effective parliamentary functioning.

Government Formation in the Netherlands – A Lengthy and Formal Process

The formation of a government in the Netherlands traditionally unfolds in several clearly defined stages. After the parliamentary elections, the House of Representatives first appoints so-called verkenners – trusted individuals who, on behalf of Parliament, explore which parties are willing to enter coalition talks and which combinations appear politically viable.

The House may then appoint an informateur. This figure is tasked, during the so-called information phase, with bridging the substantive and strategic differences between the parties and laying the groundwork for a potential coalition. The informateur usually produces a report containing recommendations for the next stage of government formation.

Once a viable alliance begins to take shape, a formateur is designated – usually the person expected to become the next prime minister. The formateur conducts the final coalition negotiations and assembles the cabinet.