EU-US Relations and Geo-economics
"It's the Economy, Stupid!"

The transatlantic alliance, long grounded in shared values, is witnessing a steady erosion of unity.

Timon Ostermeier/HSS; AI-generated Content

On 2 December, the Brussels Office of the Hanns Seidel Foundation welcomed U.S. expert Dr Josef Braml of the Trilateral Commission, a global platform for dialogue between America, Europe and Asia. 

Together with Klaus Welle, Academic Council Chairman of the Wilfried Martens Centre, and MEP Markus Ferber, Chairman of the Hanns Seidel Foundation, he discussed with Brussels-based think tankers and policymakers a strategic outlook on the transatlantic partnership.  

The closed-doors discussion highlighted following points:

Provided a strategic outlook on the transatlantic relationship (from left to right): Dr Josef Braml; Markus Feber, MEP; Klaus Welle; Dr Thomas Leeb.

Angela Ostlender/HSS

• We’re living in times of geoeconomics, in which financial flows and economic means are used to geopolitical ends. We’re facing a new Cold War, yet this time China holds economic leverage over both America and Europe. China did not emulate American democracy; instead, America has begun to emulate Chinese mercantilism. 
   
• The US is undergoing a cultural counterrevolution and sees a fusion of democratic subsystems – of military, technological, financial, and political power. Elections will not remain the same; the spectre of civil war looms large. The Biden-Harris teams campaigned on “saving democracy”, but failed, as voters are more concerned with living standards than democratic ideals – a lesson also to be learned for European democracies.
   
• Meanwhile, the US is undergoing a restructuring of its financial posture, grappling with mounting public debt – and overvalued stock markets and currency.
   
• Participants disagreed, however, on whether Washington thinks strategically. Some argued that this is the most strategically prepared administration in decades, pointing to the influence of Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025” and interpreting tariff policies through the lens of the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” as a blueprint for a new global trading system. Others emphasised the administration’s erratic behaviour, its lack of economic competence, and different camps within the Republican party, as well as unrealistic expectations of pulling off a “Reverse Nixon” to bring Russia into the fold in a new great-power rivalry with China. 
   
• Yet most participants agreed: the EU needs to act more strategically, set up a limited number of real priorities instead of lengthy roadmaps. There are enough reports published (e.g. the Letta and Draghi reports). Speedy implementation of a limited number of priorities is key – and overdue. Nonetheless, strategic action remains constrained by the need to secure democratic majorities across Europe. 

As the roundtable examined the fragile “community of values” between the US and EU, one conclusion became clear: it’s interests – not values – that bind the US and Europe together. While shifting values may even drive the transatlantic partners apart, shared economic and strategic interests keep us together.