The "Bukele Model" Part IV
The Salvadoran Model as a Challenge to the Rule of Law in the Region

The methods employed by President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador to combat both common and organized crime are gaining popularity in the region. This is especially true given the severe public security crisis that many Latin American countries are currently grappling with. Even Chile has taken notice.

In recent years, crime rates in Chile have significantly risen, especially concerning heinous crimes of a profound social impact. From 2018 to 2022, the homicide rate increased by 42.5%. Additionally, the influx of undocumented immigrants has surpassed the state's capacity to regulate and control, allowing organized crime networks from Colombia and Venezuela to expand their operations into the country. These networks are involved in activities such as contract killings, extortion, and kidnapping, which were relatively rare in Chile until recently. Public safety is the primary concern of citizens, according to numerous public opinion surveys.

The current situation of rising insecurity has created a widespread feeling of helplessness among the population. People are uncertain about the government's ability to effectively tackle common and organized crime. A significant number of people doubt the effectiveness of democracy and the rule of law. They believe that decision-making is slow and the actions of the authorities are weak and inadequate.  These circumstances have led an increasing number of citizens to be willing to sacrifice part of their rights and freedoms to empower the state to adequately and vigorously combat the scourges of common and organized crime and ensure reasonable levels of public safety.

There is a growing interest in the Salvadoran model for combating organized crime, which has plagued the Central American country for decades. The numbers seem to support the model's success: Government figures from January 2024 show that El Salvador had the lowest homicide rate in its history in 2023, at just 2.4 per 100,000 population. This is a significant drop from over 50 homicides per 100,000 people just five years ago, and brings El Salvador's homicide rate closer to the European average.

It is worth noting that each of the actions taken by the Salvadoran president has been meticulously and carefully presented. This, combined with Bukele’s notable skill and professionalism in using social media, has allowed him to cultivate an image of a modern political leader who is closely connected to his citizens and concerned about their issues.

It's not uncommon for citizens of Chile to look up to countries with better public policies. However, it's surprising that a country and government that are not typically viewed as an exemplary model, has gained so much popularity. The actions taken by President Bukele have received support mostly from political groups on the Chilean center-right, but his positive image extends beyond that sphere.  According to a January 2024 CADEM survey, Salvadoran President Bukele is the most well-known international leader among Chileans. The survey revealed that 85% of those who participated were familiar with him. Moreover, the majority of Chileans hold a positive perception of him, with 78% of respondents indicating a favorable opinion.

This has led to public figures expressing concern for the actions carried out in the Central American country. In April 2024, José Antonio Kast, a former presidential candidate and prominent political figure in Chile, traveled to El Salvador to gain insight into the country's security model. He emphasized the significance of learning from other nations' experiences and defended the measures implemented by Bukele, stating that it is not populism to address citizens' problems. However, some critics in political and intellectual circles believe it is crucial to verify the accuracy of the statistics provided by the Salvadoran government, investigate potential agreements with organized crime groups, and closely monitor the human rights situation. They caution that the Salvadoran government's co-optation of legislative and judiciary powers is significantly weakening the effectiveness of democratic and rule-of-law oversight mechanisms.

President Gabriel Boric has been critical of the policies of his Salvadoran counterpart. He believes that “compromising on democratic principles and human rights, even if it is with the noble aim of ensuring the safety of the majority of the population in any country, will inevitably lead to adverse consequences that need to be faced”.

It is clear that the "Bukele model" has put the democratic regimes in the region in a tight spot, as it has succeeded in an area where Latin American governments have traditionally struggled or failed to make progress. This situation has led to the emergence of public figures who seek to follow in this new leader's footsteps, resulting in the creation of populist proposals that undermine the foundations of the rule of law. To combat this phenomenon and prevent the spread of ideas that are corrosive to democratic and civilizing principles, it is essential that the countries in the region make tangible progress in the fight against common and organized crime. This requires a genuine political commitment to enable a dynamic and proactive approach by the State's powers, allowing the instruments provided by the rule of law to be sufficient to achieve public security objectives in a legitimate manner.

HSS; HSS

Author

Jorge Sandrock (Chile)

Attorney. Director of the Chile and Regional Latin America Projects, Hanns Seidel Foundation. Constitutional Law Professor, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez.