Political Analysis
Canada’s 2025 Vote: A New Era of Minority Government and Political Realignment
On the evening of April 28th, 2025 Mark Carney took the stage to deliver his first victory speech as an elected official. He opened with two questions: “Who is ready to stand up for Canada with me?” and “Who is ready to build Canada strong?”. On a night when voter turnout was recorded at 68.7%, the highest in 30 years[1], was the Liberal victory decisive? And how did the other parties fare with voters?
The Liberals and Conservatives Make Ground
The Liberal Party won the election with 43.7% of the popular vote, an increase of approximately 11% compared to the last election. This nationwide support translated to 169[2] seats in the Canadian Parliament, a gain of 17 seats since 2021. The majority of Liberal seats (114) came from Ontario and Quebec - which together account for 200 of the 343 ridings (districts) that make up the legislature. Additional victories throughout Atlantic Canada,[3] the Yukon and the Northwest Territories - two sparsely populated regions offering only 1 seat each – further bolstered the party's success. By also narrowly securing the most ridings in British Columbia, the Liberals emerged as clear winners. However, the 169 seats won fell 3 short of the 172 required for an absolute majority in the Parliament. As a result, any government led by Mr. Carney would be a minority government, requiring support from other parties to pass legislation.
The most notable gains for Carney and the Liberals came in Quebec, traditionally a stronghold of the Bloc Québécois. Winning 44 of the Province’s 78 ridings, the Liberals made especially strong inroads in Montreal, winning all but two seats on the island[4]. Voter sentiment in response to the US tariffs and annexation threats shifted in favor of the Liberals, as many viewed the party as better prepared to defend Canada’s interested on the international stage. In the lead up to the election, one Québécois voter stated “there is Quebec Nationalism and Canadian Nationalism. This time the second is stronger than the first”[5]. This sentiment appeared to carry the day for the Liberals in Quebec.
Despite falling short of an overall victory, the Conservative Party also had a strong showing, winning 41.3% of the popular vote - an increase of 7.6% since the last election. This support translated to 144 seats in Parliament, a gain of 23 seats – the largest increase of any party. The results were driven by strong voter support in Alberta and Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives won 47 of the 51 available seats. A close victory in Manitoba, a narrow loss in BC, and some gains across Atlantic Canada added to their seat count. However, what was most encouraging for the Conservatives were the inroads made in Ontario.
Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, is home to both the national capital, Ottawa, and the country’s largest city, Toronto—a region traditionally considered a Liberal stronghold at the federal level. However, in this election cycle, despite Liberals winning the province overall, the Conservatives gained 16 seats across Ontario, most notably in the outer Toronto ridings – defying pre-election polls that had predicted a Liberal wipeout[6]. Experts attributed this shift to suburban voters seeking policy change on affordability and housing, key issues that Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, addressed directly during the campaign[7]. While Mr. Carney presented his own solutions to these challenges, swing voters in these ridings appeared to favor the Conservative approach. These gains in Ontario were pivotal in preventing the Liberals from securing a majority in Parliament.
Parliament of Canada; https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/longest-ballot-protest-candidates-carleton-riding-poilievre-1.7503993
Pierre Pollievre and the Longest Ballot
Despite this wave of support for the Conservatives in Ontario, one key result did not go their way. In the Ottawa riding of Carleton, Pierre Poilievre lost his seat to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy by a margin of 50.83% to 45.83%. Poilievre’s defeat in a riding he had represented since 2004 came as a major surprise. Voters interviewed by the CBC cited strong anti-American sentiment as a factor that worked against him, suggesting the Conservative Party may need to rethink its strategy[8]. It appeared that the messaging and policy proposals of change that resonated across much of the province failed to break through in Carleton.
The race in Carleton also drew national attention due to the involvement of an advocacy group known as the Longest Ballot Committee (LBC), which protested Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system. To make their point, the LBC flooded the riding with independent and unaffiliated candidates. As a result, voters in Carleton were asked to choose between Pierre Poilievre, Bruce Fanjoy, and 88 other candidates. The ballot itself was almost a meter long, had to be printed on special paper due to its length, and was tied for the longest ballot in Canadian history (Figure 2)[9]. Yet with 81% voter turnout and both candidates securing an overwhelming majority of the overall vote, it remains unclear whether the “mega ballot” had a decisive impact.[10] With Mr. Poilievre’s political future uncertain – he is expected to run in a yet-to-be-announced by-election in a safe Conservative seat in Alberta[11] - some may eventually view this unusual race as a contributing factor to his potential exit from party leadership.
Minor Parties Suffer Major Losses
While the Liberals and Conservatives gained seats and performed strongly in the election, smaller parties suffered significant losses. These results raise the question of whether Canada is shifting away from a multiparty and toward a two party system, similar to that of the United States.
The Bloc Québécois won 6.4% of the popular vote, a decline of approximately 1.3% compared to the last election. This translated into 22 seats, all of which were won in Quebec. Although the Bloc came within a single vote of winning a seat from the Liberals in Terrebonne (which is still being challenged in the courts), they ultimately lost 11 seats —nearly one-third of their previous total. Despite the setback, Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet was comfortably re-elected in the Beloeil–Chambly riding. In the days following the election, Blanchet suggested that perhaps the Bloc had avoided a complete electoral wipeout, as predicted in pre-election polls[12], and called for reduced partisanship and greater cooperation across parties to ensure stability in Parliament[13]. As the third-largest party, the Bloc retains significant potential to influence legislation with its 22 votes.
The party that experienced the most severe losses was the New Democratic Party (NDP), which secured 6% of the popular vote - a drop of 11.5% and the worst result in the party’s history. Despite winning a similar share of votes as the Bloc, the NDP won just 7 seats, losing 17 and falling well below the 12-seat threshold required to maintain official party status[14]. Party leader Jagmeet Singh decisively lost his Metro Vancouver riding of Burnaby Central, finishing third behind the Liberal and Conservative candidates. Singh resigned from his leadership position that same night. The NDP did win the vast but sparsely populated Arctic territory of Nunavut but gained only 1 seat from the victory.
The heavy losses were attributed to the NDP running a leader-focused election that had lost touch with its core supporters. Former NDP MP, Charlie Angus, stated that the NDP had nothing to offer in terms of policy that addressed the concerns of voters.[15] Another Former NDP MP, Matthew Green, said voters fell into a state of “panic” over Trump’s trade war and threats against Canada’s sovereignty, and fled to the Liberals.
With the Liberals needing just 4 votes to pass legislation, the NDP’s 7 seats put them in a strong position to serve as a potential partner in advancing Mark Carney’s agenda. Although Carney has ruled out an official coalition with the NDP, the left-wing party - still reeling from a decisive electoral defeat - could nonetheless play the role of kingmaker in the next Parliament[16].
The Green party did not fare much better, winning only 1.2% of the popular vote, a loss of 1.1%, nearly half their support. The party won only 1 seat in rural British Columbia and their public-facing leader, Jonathan Pedenault, lost his metro Montreal race for election.
The Canadian People’s Party, led by Maxime Bernier, were predicted not to win a single seat. The polling numbers turned out to be accurate with the party earning a mere 0.7% of the national vote and Mr. Bernier finishing fourth in his bid to gain a seat in the Quebec riding of Beauce.
It was a difficult night for minor parties throughout Canada who will require new strategies - and in some cases new leadership – if they hope to regain lost ground at the next election. With the results finalized, a new era of Canadian politics has begun, and the public now looks to the future.
Conclusion
The 2025 federal election marked a turning point in Canadian politics. While Mark Carney and the Liberals emerged as the largest party, their narrow failure to secure a majority means the road ahead will require compromise, negotiation, and coalition-building. The Conservatives made significant gains but now face questions about leadership after the unexpected loss of Pierre Poilievre's seat. Meanwhile, the collapse of the NDP and other minor parties has raised concerns about the long-term health of Canada’s multiparty democracy. As Carney prepares to govern in a minority Parliament, all eyes will be on how effectively he can deliver on his promises, especially when it comes to relations with the United States — and whether Canada is indeed entering a new era of political realignment.
[1] https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=ele&dir=turn&document=index&lang=e
[2] Potential to change as judicial challenges are worked through the courts
[3] Atlantic Canada include the Provinces of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland & Labrador.
[4] Authier, Philip: How Quebec voted in the 2025 federal election, 01.05.2025, available at: www.montrealgazette.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/article896914.html
[5] Authier, Philip: Conservatives dig in to hold on to Quebec City fortress as Montreal resists, 19.04.2025, available at: www.montrealgazette.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/article858072.html
[6] Gollom, Mark: How the Liberals came up short in Ontario - and lost their majority bid, 01.05.2025, available at: www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-vote-ontario-majority-conservatives-1.7523038
[7] Molina Kimbrely: Carleton was Poilievre's riding to lose. When he did, it came as a shock to many. 30.04.2025, available at: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/carleton-residents-surprise-liberal-elected-poilievre-fanjoy-1.7521571
[8] Laucius, Joanna: Just how long is the ‘longest ballot’ in the riding of Carleton?, 20.04.2025, available at ca.news.yahoo.com/just-long-longest-ballot-riding-080045448.html
[9] https://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?ed=2398
[10] Tunney, Catharine, Conservative Damien Kurek says he'ss step aside for Poilievre - but by law he has to wait, 05.05.2025, available at: www.cbc.ca/news/politics/damien-kurek-poilievre-byelection-1.7526895
[11] https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=ele&dir=turn&document=index&lang=e
[12] Authier, Philip: How Quebec voted in the 2025 federal election, 01.05.2025, available at: www.montrealgazette.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/article896914.html
[13] Trépanier, Antoine: Bloc Québécois leade says he won't threaten to overthrow the government anytime soon, 29.04.2025, available at: nationalpost.com/news/bloc-quebecois-leader-says-he-wont-threaten-to-overthrow-the-government-anytime-soon
[14] Jiang, Kevin, The NDP is losing official party status after Canada's election. Here's what it means, 29.04.2025, available at: https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/the-ndp-is-losing-official-party-status-after-canadas-election-heres-what-that-means/article_ac2e10a8-98f0-412d-81dd-a3408b07c6b4.html
[15] Morrison, Catherine: 'Catastrophic loss: Former MP says NDP lost touch with core supporters, 03.05.2025, available at: globalnews.ca/news/11162700/ndp-lost-touch-with-core-supporters-says-a-former-mp/
[16] The Canadian Press, Prime Minister Mark Carney says Liberals won't enter the formal pact with the NDP, 02.05.2025, available at: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/pm-carney-says-he-wont-enter-a-formal-pact-with-the-ndp/
About the Author
Joseph Quinn is the Program Manager for the United States and Canada at the Hanns Seidel Foundation. Joseph was a Penn Kemble Fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy and was previously at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the British Embassy to the United States.
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